Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
